NBU Leaves Its Key Policy Rate Unchanged at 6%

22.10.2020 14:17 | Fin.Org.UA

The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep its key policy rate at 6% per annum. The sustained monetary policy easing is aimed at supporting economic recovery and bringing inflation to the target.

In September, inflation remained below the target range of 5%+/-1 pp. Consumer inflation declined to 2.3% yoy on an increase in food supply. This has offset the opposite pressure on prices from other factors, such as the hryvnia depreciation, higher energy prices, and a recovery in economic activity and consumer demand.

However, such balanced effect of mixed factors is temporary. According to preliminary data of the NBU’s online monitoring of prices, inflation somewhat accelerated in October. Although the hryvnia depreciation had a minor pass-through effect on prices, inflation expectations of businesses and households also continued to deteriorate. Moreover, the consumer sentiment index improved. 

Inflation will reach the lower bound of the 5% ± 1 pp target range by the end of 2020 and will accelerate further on

Considering the weak dynamics of consumer prices in Q3, the NBU has revised its annual inflation forecast downward, to 4.1%. The accelerated growth in prices at the end of this year will be primarily driven by a further recovery in economic activity amid sustained loose monetary and fiscal policies and by an increase in energy prices. The last year’s low comparison base will also have a notable statistical effect on annual inflation estimates.

Consumer inflation will increase to 6.5% in 2021, influenced by the continued economic recovery, this year’s hryvnia depreciation, and a large hike in the minimum wage that will boost domestic demand. However, inflation will cross the upper bound of the target range only temporarily. The NBU may let inflation deviate from the target for a short period of time in order for the economy to return to steady growth sooner. At the same time, the NBU will apply monetary tools to bring inflation back to the target range in 2022.

The economy of Ukraine will contract by 6% in 2020 but will resume growth at the level of around 4% in subsequent years

The GDP forecast for 2020 has remained unchanged. The main reason behind the year-end economic contraction lies in difficulties faced by businesses in Q2, when the strictest quarantine restrictions were in place. At the same time, business activity picked up markedly as the restrictions were eased. A recovery in consumer and investment demand in H2 will offset the lower crop harvest and smaller fiscal impulse.

Private consumption will remain the main economic growth driver, boosting GDP growth to 4% in 2021–2022. Fiscal stimuli, the loose monetary policy, and a rebound in external demand will support economic growth. This scenario is possible if the quarantine restrictions are not tightened in Ukraine and across the globe.

After the economy returns to steady growth, it will need less fiscal stimuli from the state. This will help gradually reduce the state budget deficit to around 3% of GDP in 2022. Going forward, the public and publicly guaranteed debt, which grew to 63% of GDP this year, will decline by 2–3 pp a year. The decline will be underpinned by economic growth, prudent fiscal policy, and moderate exchange rate volatility.

Although the current account will record a surplus of about 3% of GDP in 2020, it will return to deficit in the coming years

The coronavirus pandemic has markedly decreased energy prices, while also reducing Ukrainians’ demand for imported goods and travelling abroad, and businesses’ demand for investment products. Meanwhile, external conditions were reasonably favorable for Ukraine’s main exports. Consequently, over the entire year, exports will fall much less pronouncedly than imports. As a result, the current account will post a surplus.

The economic recovery is triggering a widening of both consumer and investment imports, a trend which was already apparent in Q3 2020. The rebounding global economy is also pushing energy prices up. In addition, Ukraine’s income from gas transit will fall both this and next year. All of these factors will cause the current account to return to deficit. In 2021, the deficit will be about 2% of GDP, widening to 5% of GDP in 2022.

The primary assumption of the NBU Board is that Ukraine will continue to cooperate with the IMF

Cooperation with the Fund is the basic precondition for fully financing the state budget deficit. Another important precondition is receiving financing from international partners, which in turn depends on IMF financing. Ukraine needs this support to revive its economy as quickly as possible.

In contrast, any significant delays in, or suspension of, Ukraine’s performance of its commitments to the IMF could not only slow economic recovery, but also markedly worsen inflation and depreciation expectations.

A constructive dialogue with international partners is the key to maintaining macrofinancial stability. Cooperation with the IMF will enable Ukraine to continue to meet its external obligations and to increase international reserves to USD 29-30 billion in the years to come.

As before, a longer-lasting coronavirus pandemic, the further spread of the disease and stricter quarantine measures remain the key risks to macrofinancial stability

Other risks also remain significant. They include:

  • the negative impact of certain court rulings on macrofinancial stability
  • an escalation of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine or on the country’s borders and
  • the higher volatility of global food prices, driven by global climate change and the risk of stronger protectionist measures.

Given the above balance of risks and expectations that inflation will overshoot its target range in 2021, the NBU Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged, at 6%.

With the high level of uncertainty, the NBU’s future monetary policy will mainly depend on how the pandemic develops and what budgetary parameters are adopted

If the pick-up in domestic demand and business activity fails to persist due to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, the NBU will be able to support the economy by cutting its key policy rate further. Conversely, the NBU will also be prepared to raise the key policy rate in 2021 if inflationary pressures intensify. The NBU will continue to keep a balance between stimulating the economy and maintaining moderate inflation. The NBU’s decisions will also be largely guided by the established parameters of fiscal support for the economy. This support is also expected to be significant next year.

A new detailed macroeconomic forecast will be published in the central bank’s Inflation Report on 29 October 2020.

A summary of the discussion by Monetary Policy Committee members that preceded the approval of this decision will be published on 2 November 2020.

The next monetary policy meeting of the NBU Board will be held on 10 December 2020

NBU Key rate (from 1992 року)


Добавить комментарий


Введите Код, указанный на рисунке


20:06 - Пріоритети діяльності Державної авіаційної служби України на 2021-2023 роки
19:42 - “Энергоатом” решил ускорить подготовительные работы для достройки третьего энергоблока Хмельницкой АЭС
19:42 - Запасы угля на всех ТЭС Украины отказались ниже плановых
19:18 - Сталий розвиток інфраструктури та мобільність: про що говорили на зустрічі з командою ООН
19:18 - Фахівці проводять перевірку інформації щодо розлиття рожевої речовини поблизу м. Рівне
19:18 - Міністр фінансів України Сергій Марченко зустрівся з тимчасово повіреним у справах США в Україні Джорджем Кентом
19:18 - Мінекономіки: промвиробництво зростає четвертий місяць поспіль
18:48 - Межбанк закрылся долларом по 27,06
18:48 - Инвестор внутренних дел. С чем экс-глава МВД Арсен Аваков покинул министерское кресло
18:48 - Действие контрактов НБУ с детективами Kroll по делу Приватбанка завершилось
18:48 - Денис Шмыгаль поручил расширить условия льготных ипотечных программ
18:48 - Украинские банки ожидают дальнейший рост спроса на потребительские кредиты
18:48 - Минэкономики призвало инвесторов готовить документы для господдержки проектов
18:48 - Премьер поручил предусмотреть докапитализацию Фонда содействия молодежному жилищному строительству
17:54 - Минздрав признало неизбежность нового локдауна в Украине
17:54 - Телехолдинг Игоря Коломойского будет показывать российские сериалы на языке оригинала
17:54 - Украина увеличила экспорт нефтепродуктов в 1,8 раза
17:54 - Тарифы “Укрпочты” вырастут до 40%
17:54 - Назначен заместитель гендиректора по производству “ArcelorMittal Кривой Рог”
17:45 - Підсумки торгів цінними паперами на Українській біржі за 23.07.2021
17:12 - Екватор вступу до закладів професійної освіти: МОН публікує ключові дані та перелік регіонів-лідерів з набору вступників
17:12 - Денис Шмигаль: Завдання Уряду — максимально розширити іпотечні програми, щоб забезпечити українців доступним житлом
17:12 - НАТО посилить підтримку України з питань фізичної реабілітації військовослужбовців-учасників бойових дій в рамках Трастового Фонду НАТО
17:12 - Олексій Чернишов: Проект «DNISTER CANYON» — чудовий приклад переваг децентралізації
17:00 - Госбанки в июне выдали четырем городам кредиты на 1,5 млрд гривен
17:00 - НБУ объяснило, почему ликвидировал подразделение по вопросам Приватбанка
17:00 - Еврокомиссия получила ноту Украины о консультациях по “Северному потоку-2”
17:00 - Госгеонедр выставила на аукцион 5 участков для добычи нефти и газа
16:46 - ФОП має право вільно користуватися коштами з розрахункового рахунку для підприємницької діяльності, якщо сплатив всі податки
16:06 - Закон об отмене коррупционной процедуры переаттестации моряков подписан Владимиром Зеленским

Більше новин

Австралійський долар19.9763
Канадський долар21.5239
Юань Женьміньбі4.1757
Чеська крона1.2415
Данська крона4.2812
Гонконгівський долар3.4815
Індійська рупія0.36335
Новий ізраїльський шекель8.268
Мексиканське песо1.3471
Молдовський лей1.4974
Новозеландський долар18.9079
Норвезька крона3.0598
Російський рубль0.36764
Саудівський ріял7.2109
Сінгапурський долар19.9029
Шведська крона3.1182
Швейцарський франк29.3761
Єгипетський фунт1.7259
Фунт стерлінгів37.2275
Долар США27.048
Білоруський рубль10.7628
Румунський лей6.469
Турецька ліра3.1656
СПЗ (спеціальні права запозичення)38.4304
Болгарський лев16.2753
Алжирський динар0.20252
Вірменський драм0.05491
Іранський ріал0.00064827
Іракський динар0.018649
Ліванський фунт0.018061
Лівійський динар6.0418
Малайзійський ринггіт6.5624
Марокканський дирхам3.0531
Пакистанська рупія0.17293
Дирхам ОАЕ7.4129
Туніський динар9.722
Узбецький сум0.0025708
Туркменський новий манат7.7793
Сербський динар0.27515
Азербайджанський манат16.0237
Бразильський реал5.4721

Курси валют, встановлені НБУ на: 26.07.2021


Дані за 23.07.2021