NBU Leaves Its Key Policy Rate Unchanged at 6%

22.10 14:17 | Fin.Org.UA

The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep its key policy rate at 6% per annum. The sustained monetary policy easing is aimed at supporting economic recovery and bringing inflation to the target.

In September, inflation remained below the target range of 5%+/-1 pp. Consumer inflation declined to 2.3% yoy on an increase in food supply. This has offset the opposite pressure on prices from other factors, such as the hryvnia depreciation, higher energy prices, and a recovery in economic activity and consumer demand.

However, such balanced effect of mixed factors is temporary. According to preliminary data of the NBU’s online monitoring of prices, inflation somewhat accelerated in October. Although the hryvnia depreciation had a minor pass-through effect on prices, inflation expectations of businesses and households also continued to deteriorate. Moreover, the consumer sentiment index improved. 

Inflation will reach the lower bound of the 5% ± 1 pp target range by the end of 2020 and will accelerate further on

Considering the weak dynamics of consumer prices in Q3, the NBU has revised its annual inflation forecast downward, to 4.1%. The accelerated growth in prices at the end of this year will be primarily driven by a further recovery in economic activity amid sustained loose monetary and fiscal policies and by an increase in energy prices. The last year’s low comparison base will also have a notable statistical effect on annual inflation estimates.

Consumer inflation will increase to 6.5% in 2021, influenced by the continued economic recovery, this year’s hryvnia depreciation, and a large hike in the minimum wage that will boost domestic demand. However, inflation will cross the upper bound of the target range only temporarily. The NBU may let inflation deviate from the target for a short period of time in order for the economy to return to steady growth sooner. At the same time, the NBU will apply monetary tools to bring inflation back to the target range in 2022.

The economy of Ukraine will contract by 6% in 2020 but will resume growth at the level of around 4% in subsequent years

The GDP forecast for 2020 has remained unchanged. The main reason behind the year-end economic contraction lies in difficulties faced by businesses in Q2, when the strictest quarantine restrictions were in place. At the same time, business activity picked up markedly as the restrictions were eased. A recovery in consumer and investment demand in H2 will offset the lower crop harvest and smaller fiscal impulse.

Private consumption will remain the main economic growth driver, boosting GDP growth to 4% in 2021–2022. Fiscal stimuli, the loose monetary policy, and a rebound in external demand will support economic growth. This scenario is possible if the quarantine restrictions are not tightened in Ukraine and across the globe.

After the economy returns to steady growth, it will need less fiscal stimuli from the state. This will help gradually reduce the state budget deficit to around 3% of GDP in 2022. Going forward, the public and publicly guaranteed debt, which grew to 63% of GDP this year, will decline by 2–3 pp a year. The decline will be underpinned by economic growth, prudent fiscal policy, and moderate exchange rate volatility.

Although the current account will record a surplus of about 3% of GDP in 2020, it will return to deficit in the coming years

The coronavirus pandemic has markedly decreased energy prices, while also reducing Ukrainians’ demand for imported goods and travelling abroad, and businesses’ demand for investment products. Meanwhile, external conditions were reasonably favorable for Ukraine’s main exports. Consequently, over the entire year, exports will fall much less pronouncedly than imports. As a result, the current account will post a surplus.

The economic recovery is triggering a widening of both consumer and investment imports, a trend which was already apparent in Q3 2020. The rebounding global economy is also pushing energy prices up. In addition, Ukraine’s income from gas transit will fall both this and next year. All of these factors will cause the current account to return to deficit. In 2021, the deficit will be about 2% of GDP, widening to 5% of GDP in 2022.

The primary assumption of the NBU Board is that Ukraine will continue to cooperate with the IMF

Cooperation with the Fund is the basic precondition for fully financing the state budget deficit. Another important precondition is receiving financing from international partners, which in turn depends on IMF financing. Ukraine needs this support to revive its economy as quickly as possible.

In contrast, any significant delays in, or suspension of, Ukraine’s performance of its commitments to the IMF could not only slow economic recovery, but also markedly worsen inflation and depreciation expectations.

A constructive dialogue with international partners is the key to maintaining macrofinancial stability. Cooperation with the IMF will enable Ukraine to continue to meet its external obligations and to increase international reserves to USD 29-30 billion in the years to come.

As before, a longer-lasting coronavirus pandemic, the further spread of the disease and stricter quarantine measures remain the key risks to macrofinancial stability

Other risks also remain significant. They include:

  • the negative impact of certain court rulings on macrofinancial stability
  • an escalation of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine or on the country’s borders and
  • the higher volatility of global food prices, driven by global climate change and the risk of stronger protectionist measures.

Given the above balance of risks and expectations that inflation will overshoot its target range in 2021, the NBU Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged, at 6%.

With the high level of uncertainty, the NBU’s future monetary policy will mainly depend on how the pandemic develops and what budgetary parameters are adopted

If the pick-up in domestic demand and business activity fails to persist due to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, the NBU will be able to support the economy by cutting its key policy rate further. Conversely, the NBU will also be prepared to raise the key policy rate in 2021 if inflationary pressures intensify. The NBU will continue to keep a balance between stimulating the economy and maintaining moderate inflation. The NBU’s decisions will also be largely guided by the established parameters of fiscal support for the economy. This support is also expected to be significant next year.

A new detailed macroeconomic forecast will be published in the central bank’s Inflation Report on 29 October 2020.

A summary of the discussion by Monetary Policy Committee members that preceded the approval of this decision will be published on 2 November 2020.

The next monetary policy meeting of the NBU Board will be held on 10 December 2020

NBU Key rate (from 1992 року)


Добавить комментарий


Введите Код, указанный на рисунке


18:36 - Межбанк закрылся долларом по 28,51
18:36 - Дорогая доставка. Как с нового года в Украине повысят тарифы на газ
18:36 - Президенту бизнеса Петра Порошенко объявят о подозрении из-за ДТП с велосипедистами
18:36 - В Донецкой и Луганской областях 65 объектов инфраструктуры обустроят источниками солнечной генерации
18:36 - Банк “Сич” взял кредит рефинансирования на 100 млн гривен
18:36 - Членом правления Ощадбанка назначен экс-чиновник НБУ
18:24 - ОГТСУ: Підвищення тарифів для облгазів має відбуватися одночасно із впровадженням дієвого механізму контролю їх цільового використання
17:48 - Обліковано 1 458 999 внутрішньо переміщених осіб
17:48 - Абрамова Ю. М. - Інформація щодо проведення перевірки, передбаченої Законом України "Про очищення влади"
17:45 - Новорічна Акція для вкладників КРИСТАЛБАНКу!
17:42 - Бывший рейдер Коломойского считает, что выплата Ахметовым 20 тыс долларов нардепам-”слугам” — вынужденная мера
17:42 - Немцы уверяют, что рынок электроэнергии в Украине не конкурентный
17:42 - “Интерпайп” Виктора Пинчука начал поставки колес для Deutsche Bahn под псевдошвейцарским брендом
17:42 - “Кузница на Рыбальском” вернула Минфину более 300 млн гривен
17:42 - NASA решила построить на Луне атомную электростанцию
17:42 - Глава “Укроборонпрома” заявил о коллапсе с производством боеприпасов в Украине
16:48 - Средняя зарплата врача специализированной помощи — менее 9 тыс гривен
16:48 - На министра энергетики рассматривают Витренко, у которого конфликт интересов с государством на 20 млн долларов
16:48 - Потребление металла в Украине сократилось на 10,2% с начала года
16:48 - Кабмин оценил расходы на выплату компенсаций на время локдауна в 15 млрд гривен
16:30 - Курси валют, встановлені НБУ на: 01.12.2020
16:06 - «Украинская страховая группа» за 9 месяцев 2020 года увеличила премии на 24% до 1,37 млрд. грн.
16:06 - CК Евроинс Украина за 10 месяцев 2020 года увеличила премии на 34% до 280 млн грн.
16:06 - Функции Координационного совета МТСБУ перешли к Правлению НБУ
15:54 -  Нужно быть готовым, что любая клиника, принимающая плановых больных, рано или поздно столкнется с COVID-19 — анестезиолог Сергей Дубров
15:54 - Депутаты в тюрьму не хотят. Как Зе и Рада решили вернуть ответственность за декларирование в лайт-варианте
15:54 - Президент внес законопроект об отсрочке РРО, но ФОПов он не устраивает. Начнется ли завтра Налоговый майдан?
15:54 - Владимир Зеленский предлагает отсрочить обязательные кассовые аппараты для физлиц-предпринимателей на год
15:54 - В Украине самая высокая цена на электроэнергию в Европе
15:42 - За минулий тиждень нараховано 3,2 млн грн плати за перевантаження, - Владислав Криклій

Більше новин

Австралійський долар21.0188
Канадський долар21.9988
Юань Женьміньбі4.3327
Чеська крона1.3027
Данська крона4.5887
Гонконгівський долар3.6763
Індійська рупія0.38475
Новий ізраїльський шекель8.6148
Мексиканське песо1.4206
Молдовський лей1.6531
Новозеландський долар20.0599
Норвезька крона3.2341
Російський рубль0.37456
Саудівський ріял7.5976
Сінгапурський долар21.3024
Шведська крона3.3579
Швейцарський франк31.4893
Єгипетський фунт1.818
Фунт стерлінгів38.0011
Долар США28.4962
Білоруський рубль11.0109
Азербайджанський манат16.7694
Румунський лей7.0075
Турецька ліра3.6594
СПЗ (спеціальні права запозичення)40.7336
Болгарський лев17.4545
Алжирський динар0.22081
Вірменський драм0.056272
Іранський ріал0.00067848
Іракський динар0.023946
Ліванський фунт0.018903
Лівійський динар21.0771
Малайзійський ринггіт6.9962
Марокканський дирхам3.14
Дирхам ОАЕ7.7583
Туніський динар10.4493
Узбецький сум0.0027328
Новий тайванський долар0.99784
Туркменський новий манат8.1418
Ганське седі4.8729
Сербський динар0.29032
Бразильський реал5.3839

Курси валют, встановлені НБУ на: 01.12.2020


Дані за 30.11.2020